Grorud vs Moss

23 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.8 pp

Grorud

Moss

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.7% DRAW 22.9% AWAY 43.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.9% 3.30 DRAW 23.3% 4.10 AWAY 47.8% 2.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Grorud clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.7% win probability, compared with 28.9% implied by the market. The 4.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Grorud has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Grorud Moss

Shots 10.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Grorud, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Grorud Moss

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 6.0

Grorud has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Grorud Moss

The combined recent performance profile favours Grorud.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Grorud ↓ -0.10 (-2.9%)

Moss ↑ +0.25 (+14.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.