Follo vs Sarpsborg

30 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Follo

Sarpsborg

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 4.3% DRAW 10.4% AWAY 85.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 3.9% 24.00 DRAW 10.5% 9.00 AWAY 85.6% 1.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Follo

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Follo Sarpsborg

Shots 13.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 13.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Follo Sarpsborg

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 8.3 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Sarpsborg has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Follo Sarpsborg

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Follo ↑ +7.50 (+45.5%)

Sarpsborg ↑ +0.01 (+0.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.