Mexico vs Peru

30 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Mexico

Peru

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 65.3% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 11.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.3% 1.60 DRAW 24.4% 4.07 AWAY 13.3% 7.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mexico relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 65.3% win probability, compared with 62.3% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Mexico has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mexico Peru

Shots 15.8 · On target 4.5 Shots 8.0 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Mexico, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mexico Peru

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Mexico has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mexico Peru

The combined recent performance profile favours Mexico.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Mexico ↓ 0.00 (-0.2%)

Peru ↑ +2.73 (+57.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.