SJK vs IFK Mariehamn

18 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

SJK

IFK Mariehamn

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.8% DRAW 23.5% AWAY 20.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.8% 1.83 DRAW 24.6% 3.94 AWAY 22.6% 4.28

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for SJK relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.8% win probability, compared with 52.8% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

SJK has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

SJK IFK Mariehamn

Shots 9.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

SJK IFK Mariehamn

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.8

SJK has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

SJK IFK Mariehamn

The combined recent performance profile favours SJK.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

SJK ↑ +0.10 (+6.0%)

IFK Mariehamn ↓ -0.17 (-3.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.