Newell's Reserves vs Rosario Central Reserves

24 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Newell's Reserves

Rosario Central Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.6% DRAW 30.3% AWAY 31.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.8% 2.55 DRAW 30.1% 3.20 AWAY 32.1% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Rosario Central Reserves

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Newell's Reserves Rosario Central Reserves

Shots 13.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 14.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Newell's Reserves Rosario Central Reserves

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Newell's Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Newell's Reserves Rosario Central Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Newell's Reserves = (0.0%)

Rosario Central Reserves ↑ +0.55 (+22.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.