CA Tigre Reserves vs Gimnasia LP Reserves

29 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

CA Tigre Reserves

Gimnasia LP Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.5% DRAW 32.2% AWAY 39.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.7% 3.31 DRAW 31.7% 3.10 AWAY 38.6% 2.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Gimnasia LP Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA Tigre Reserves Gimnasia LP Reserves

Shots 6.0 · On target 2.5 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Gimnasia LP Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA Tigre Reserves Gimnasia LP Reserves

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA Tigre Reserves Gimnasia LP Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Gimnasia LP Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

CA Tigre Reserves ↑ +0.93 (+39.1%)

Gimnasia LP Reserves = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.