Defensa y Justicia Reserves vs CA Tigre Reserves

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Defensa y Justicia Reserves

CA Tigre Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.0% DRAW 26.2% AWAY 18.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.6% 1.84 DRAW 27.1% 3.50 AWAY 21.2% 4.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Defensa y Justicia Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.0% win probability, compared with 51.6% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensa y Justicia Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Defensa y Justicia Reserves CA Tigre Reserves

Shots 15.3 · On target 7.8 Shots 12.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Defensa y Justicia Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Defensa y Justicia Reserves CA Tigre Reserves

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 6.3

Defensa y Justicia Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Defensa y Justicia Reserves CA Tigre Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Defensa y Justicia Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Defensa y Justicia Reserves ↓ -0.07 (-3.6%)

CA Tigre Reserves ↑ +0.73 (+19.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.