CA Independiente Reserves vs Boca Juniors Reserves

01 Oct 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

CA Independiente Reserves

Boca Juniors Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.4% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 47.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.7% 3.59 DRAW 27.7% 3.59 AWAY 44.6% 2.23

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Boca Juniors Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.4% win probability, compared with 44.6% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Boca Juniors Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA Independiente Reserves Boca Juniors Reserves

Shots 5.5 · On target 1.8 Shots 13.8 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Boca Juniors Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA Independiente Reserves Boca Juniors Reserves

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 1.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA Independiente Reserves Boca Juniors Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Boca Juniors Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

CA Independiente Reserves ↑ +0.74 (+26.0%)

Boca Juniors Reserves = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.