Sarmiento Reserves vs Atletico Rafaela Reserves

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Sarmiento Reserves

Atletico Rafaela Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.3% DRAW 30.5% AWAY 25.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.9% 2.37 DRAW 30.5% 3.25 AWAY 27.6% 3.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sarmiento Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sarmiento Reserves Atletico Rafaela Reserves

Shots 13.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 7.0 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Sarmiento Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sarmiento Reserves Atletico Rafaela Reserves

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sarmiento Reserves Atletico Rafaela Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Sarmiento Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sarmiento Reserves ↑ +0.47 (+24.7%)

Atletico Rafaela Reserves ↓ -0.28 (-7.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.