Baerum vs Lillestrom

01 Oct 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Baerum

Lillestrom

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 7.5% DRAW 10.1% AWAY 82.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 5.4% 18.00 DRAW 9.6% 10.10 AWAY 85.0% 1.14

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Baerum

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Baerum Lillestrom

Shots 16.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Baerum, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Baerum Lillestrom

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Baerum Lillestrom

The combined recent performance profile favours Baerum.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Baerum ↑ +7.00 (+63.6%)

Lillestrom ↓ -0.03 (-2.2%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.