FC Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka

29 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

FC Osaka

Avispa Fukuoka

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.5% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 55.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 16.2% 5.87 DRAW 22.0% 4.33 AWAY 61.9% 1.54

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates FC Osaka clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 21.5% win probability, compared with 16.2% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: FC Osaka

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Osaka Avispa Fukuoka

Shots 10.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours FC Osaka, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Osaka Avispa Fukuoka

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 19.5 · On target allowed 5.3

FC Osaka has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Osaka Avispa Fukuoka

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Osaka.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

FC Osaka ↓ -2.78 (-32.1%)

Avispa Fukuoka ↑ +0.05 (+3.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.