Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Nagoya Grampus

29 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Giravanz Kitakyushu

Nagoya Grampus

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 13.9% DRAW 18.4% AWAY 67.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 11.3% 8.35 DRAW 17.6% 5.34 AWAY 71.1% 1.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Giravanz Kitakyushu relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 13.9% win probability, compared with 11.3% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Giravanz Kitakyushu has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Giravanz Kitakyushu Nagoya Grampus

Shots 12.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Giravanz Kitakyushu, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Giravanz Kitakyushu Nagoya Grampus

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Giravanz Kitakyushu has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Giravanz Kitakyushu Nagoya Grampus

The combined recent performance profile favours Giravanz Kitakyushu.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Giravanz Kitakyushu ↑ +1.10 (+15.2%)

Nagoya Grampus ↑ +0.04 (+2.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.