Kataller Toyama vs Urawa Red Diamonds

29 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Kataller Toyama

Urawa Red Diamonds

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.3% DRAW 24.6% AWAY 48.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.6% 3.96 DRAW 24.4% 3.82 AWAY 52.0% 1.79

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Kataller Toyama relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 27.3% win probability, compared with 23.6% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Kataller Toyama

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Kataller Toyama Urawa Red Diamonds

Shots 14.3 · On target 6.5 Shots 14.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Kataller Toyama, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Kataller Toyama Urawa Red Diamonds

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Kataller Toyama has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Kataller Toyama Urawa Red Diamonds

The combined recent performance profile favours Kataller Toyama.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Kataller Toyama ↑ +0.06 (+1.4%)

Urawa Red Diamonds ↑ +0.13 (+8.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.