Tochigi City vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

29 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +7.2 pp

Tochigi City

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 6.4% DRAW 13.0% AWAY 80.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.1% 9.35 DRAW 16.5% 5.73 AWAY 73.4% 1.29

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Sanfrecce Hiroshima substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 80.6% win probability, compared with 73.4% implied by the market. The 7.2 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tochigi City Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shots 9.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 22.0 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tochigi City Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shots allowed 20.5 · On target allowed 9.5 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tochigi City Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The combined recent performance profile favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Tochigi City ↓ -0.85 (-8.3%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↑ +0.04 (+2.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.