Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica

24 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Union La Calera

Universidad Catolica

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.6% DRAW 29.3% AWAY 40.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.0% 3.45 DRAW 28.7% 3.24 AWAY 44.3% 2.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Union La Calera relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 30.6% win probability, compared with 27.0% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Union La Calera has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Union La Calera Universidad Catolica

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Union La Calera Universidad Catolica

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 6.5

Union La Calera has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Union La Calera Universidad Catolica

The combined recent performance profile favours Union La Calera.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Union La Calera ↓ -0.18 (-4.7%)

Universidad Catolica ↑ +0.25 (+13.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.