Sparta Praha (W) vs Farul Constanta (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.0 pp

Sparta Praha (W)

Farul Constanta (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 76.5% DRAW 13.5% AWAY 9.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 84.0% 1.18 DRAW 11.0% 9.00 AWAY 5.0% 20.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Farul Constanta (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 9.9% win probability, compared with 5.0% implied by the market. The 5.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Farul Constanta (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sparta Praha (W) Farul Constanta (W)

Shots 5.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 27.0 · On target 16.3

Recent attacking output favours Farul Constanta (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sparta Praha (W) Farul Constanta (W)

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 2.3 · On target allowed 1.8

Farul Constanta (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sparta Praha (W) Farul Constanta (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Farul Constanta (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sparta Praha (W) ↑ +0.06 (+5.0%)

Farul Constanta (W) ↑ +3.00 (+17.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.