Hearts (W) vs Real Sociedad (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Hearts (W)

Real Sociedad (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 15.6% DRAW 19.5% AWAY 64.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 11.9% 7.90 DRAW 18.3% 5.15 AWAY 69.8% 1.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hearts (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 15.6% win probability, compared with 11.9% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Hearts (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hearts (W) Real Sociedad (W)

Shots 18.0 · On target 8.0 Shots 14.0 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Hearts (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hearts (W) Real Sociedad (W)

Shots allowed 3.3 · On target allowed 1.3 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Hearts (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hearts (W) Real Sociedad (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Hearts (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Hearts (W) ↑ +1.01 (+14.7%)

Real Sociedad (W) ↓ -0.07 (-4.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.