FK Aktobe (W) vs Ajax (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

FK Aktobe (W)

Ajax (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 1.4% DRAW 2.3% AWAY 96.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 1.8% 55.00 DRAW 3.2% 31.00 AWAY 95.1% 1.03

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Ajax (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Aktobe (W) Ajax (W)

Shots 9.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 21.3 · On target 11.3

Recent attacking output favours Ajax (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Aktobe (W) Ajax (W)

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 3.0

Ajax (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Aktobe (W) Ajax (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Ajax (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

FK Aktobe (W) ↑ +21.00 (+61.8%)

Ajax (W) ↓ -0.01 (-1.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.