Malmo FF (W) vs SKN St Polten (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Malmo FF (W)

SKN St Polten (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.1% DRAW 19.2% AWAY 11.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.4% 1.48 DRAW 20.5% 4.78 AWAY 13.1% 7.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Malmo FF (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 69.1% win probability, compared with 66.4% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Malmo FF (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Malmo FF (W) SKN St Polten (W)

Shots 15.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 13.8 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Malmo FF (W) SKN St Polten (W)

Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Malmo FF (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Malmo FF (W) SKN St Polten (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Malmo FF (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Malmo FF (W) ↓ -0.09 (-5.8%)

SKN St Polten (W) ↑ +3.17 (+73.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.