Wolfsburg (W) vs SK Sturm Graz (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

Wolfsburg (W)

SK Sturm Graz (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 88.6% DRAW 8.5% AWAY 2.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 88.5% 1.10 DRAW 8.8% 11.00 AWAY 2.7% 36.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: SK Sturm Graz (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Wolfsburg (W) SK Sturm Graz (W)

Shots 19.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 13.0 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Wolfsburg (W) SK Sturm Graz (W)

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 4.0

SK Sturm Graz (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Wolfsburg (W) SK Sturm Graz (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Wolfsburg (W) ↑ +0.03 (+2.7%)

SK Sturm Graz (W) ↑ +15.00 (+71.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.