Ajax (W) vs FK Aktobe (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Ajax (W)

FK Aktobe (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 87.5% DRAW 8.9% AWAY 3.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 87.3% 1.07 DRAW 9.4% 10.00 AWAY 3.3% 28.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ajax (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ajax (W) FK Aktobe (W)

Shots 13.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 8.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Ajax (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ajax (W) FK Aktobe (W)

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.3

FK Aktobe (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ajax (W) FK Aktobe (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Ajax (W) = (0.0%)

FK Aktobe (W) ↑ +9.00 (+47.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.