Lyon (W) vs Chelsea (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.9 pp

Lyon (W)

Chelsea (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.8% DRAW 16.7% AWAY 12.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.9% 1.53 DRAW 19.2% 5.18 AWAY 15.9% 6.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Lyon (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 70.8% win probability, compared with 64.9% implied by the market. The 5.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Lyon (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lyon (W) Chelsea (W)

Shots 27.8 · On target 10.8 Shots 15.8 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output favours Lyon (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lyon (W) Chelsea (W)

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Lyon (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lyon (W) Chelsea (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Lyon (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Lyon (W) ↑ +0.04 (+2.9%)

Chelsea (W) ↑ +0.81 (+13.5%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.