Bayern Munich (W) vs Man City (W)

22 Sep 2026 · 18:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Bayern Munich (W)

Man City (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.4% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 28.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.3% 2.08 DRAW 24.1% 4.00 AWAY 29.6% 3.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Bayern Munich (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bayern Munich (W) Man City (W)

Shots 17.0 · On target 8.5 Shots 18.5 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bayern Munich (W) Man City (W)

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.8

Bayern Munich (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bayern Munich (W) Man City (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Bayern Munich (W) ↓ -0.12 (-5.5%)

Man City (W) ↑ +0.60 (+22.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.