Uganda vs Libya

29 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Uganda

Libya

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.6% DRAW 31.8% AWAY 23.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.4% 2.04 DRAW 30.8% 3.14 AWAY 21.8% 4.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Libya

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Uganda Libya

Shots 1.8 · On target 0.8 Shots 10.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Libya, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Uganda Libya

Shots allowed 2.8 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.5

Uganda has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Uganda Libya

The combined recent performance profile favours Libya.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Uganda ↑ +0.31 (+17.9%)

Libya ↓ -0.02 (-0.4%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.