Libya vs Botswana

24 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.8 pp

Libya

Botswana

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.0% DRAW 25.3% AWAY 11.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.2% 1.66 DRAW 27.3% 3.48 AWAY 15.6% 6.09

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Libya clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.0% win probability, compared with 57.2% implied by the market. The 5.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Libya has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Libya Botswana

Shots 8.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 6.3 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Libya, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Libya Botswana

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 20.3 · On target allowed 8.0

Libya has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Libya Botswana

The combined recent performance profile favours Libya.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Libya ↑ +0.20 (+13.7%)

Botswana ↓ -0.68 (-10.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.