Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria

29 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.0 pp

Guinea-Bissau

Nigeria

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 12.9% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 61.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 12.8% 7.50 DRAW 25.0% 3.85 AWAY 62.1% 1.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Nigeria

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Guinea-Bissau Nigeria

Shots 7.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 7.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Guinea-Bissau Nigeria

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Nigeria has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Guinea-Bissau Nigeria

The combined recent performance profile favours Nigeria.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Guinea-Bissau ↓ -1.65 (-18.0%)

Nigeria ↑ +0.24 (+18.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.