Liberia vs Mali

29 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Liberia

Mali

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.9% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 60.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 13.5% 7.00 DRAW 23.9% 3.95 AWAY 62.5% 1.51

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Liberia

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Liberia Mali

Shots 8.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 4.0 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Liberia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Liberia Mali

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Mali has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Liberia Mali

The combined recent performance profile favours Liberia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Liberia ↑ +1.06 (+17.8%)

Mali ↑ +0.00 (+0.1%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.