Ethiopia vs Senegal

29 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Ethiopia

Senegal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.3% DRAW 19.0% AWAY 69.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 11.1% 8.50 DRAW 19.3% 4.90 AWAY 69.6% 1.36

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Senegal

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ethiopia Senegal

Shots 2.3 · On target 1.0 Shots 15.8 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Senegal, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ethiopia Senegal

Shots allowed 1.5 · On target allowed 0.3 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Ethiopia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ethiopia Senegal

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Ethiopia ↓ -8.00 (-48.5%)

Senegal ↑ +0.26 (+23.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.