Mozambique vs Sudan

29 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Mozambique

Sudan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.9% DRAW 32.6% AWAY 19.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.6% 1.94 DRAW 31.2% 3.15 AWAY 18.2% 5.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sudan

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mozambique Sudan

Shots 4.3 · On target 1.0 Shots 9.3 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Sudan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mozambique Sudan

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mozambique Sudan

The combined recent performance profile favours Sudan.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Mozambique ↑ +0.06 (+3.4%)

Sudan ↑ +1.30 (+31.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.