Mozambique vs Senegal

25 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

Mozambique

Senegal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 7.7% DRAW 17.5% AWAY 74.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 9.4% 9.97 DRAW 19.1% 4.90 AWAY 71.5% 1.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Senegal relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 74.8% win probability, compared with 71.5% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Senegal has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mozambique Senegal

Shots 4.3 · On target 1.0 Shots 15.8 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Senegal, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mozambique Senegal

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Senegal has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mozambique Senegal

The combined recent performance profile favours Senegal.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Mozambique ↑ +8.87 (+806.4%)

Senegal ↓ -15.69 (-92.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.