Sudan vs Ethiopia

25 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Sudan

Ethiopia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.3% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 24.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.3% 1.90 DRAW 28.9% 3.24 AWAY 21.7% 4.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sudan

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sudan Ethiopia

Shots 9.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 2.3 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Sudan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sudan Ethiopia

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 1.5 · On target allowed 0.3

Ethiopia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sudan Ethiopia

The combined recent performance profile favours Ethiopia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sudan ↑ +0.05 (+2.8%)

Ethiopia ↑ +0.29 (+7.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.