Namibia vs Congo

24 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Namibia

Congo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.9% DRAW 31.3% AWAY 25.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.9% 2.38 DRAW 31.3% 3.04 AWAY 28.8% 3.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Namibia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.9% win probability, compared with 39.9% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Namibia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Namibia Congo

Shots 6.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 5.3 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Namibia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Namibia Congo

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Namibia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Namibia Congo

The combined recent performance profile favours Namibia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Namibia ↑ +0.22 (+10.2%)

Congo ↑ +0.21 (+6.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.