Central African Rep vs Burkina Faso

28 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Central African Rep

Burkina Faso

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 10.1% DRAW 21.0% AWAY 68.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.4% 9.25 DRAW 21.2% 4.55 AWAY 68.4% 1.41

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Burkina Faso has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Central African Rep Burkina Faso

Shots 5.5 · On target 2.0 Shots 7.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Burkina Faso, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Central African Rep Burkina Faso

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.8

Burkina Faso has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Central African Rep Burkina Faso

The combined recent performance profile favours Burkina Faso.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Central African Rep ↓ -1.85 (-16.7%)

Burkina Faso ↑ +0.19 (+15.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.