Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone

28 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Equatorial Guinea

Sierra Leone

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.3% DRAW 29.5% AWAY 25.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.0% 2.10 DRAW 29.2% 3.30 AWAY 24.8% 3.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sierra Leone

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone

Shots 1.5 · On target 0.8 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Sierra Leone, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone

Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 1.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Equatorial Guinea has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone

The combined recent performance profile favours Sierra Leone.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Equatorial Guinea ↑ +0.28 (+15.4%)

Sierra Leone ↓ -0.04 (-1.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.