Congo DR vs Equatorial Guinea

24 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Congo DR

Equatorial Guinea

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 72.1% DRAW 19.9% AWAY 8.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 73.1% 1.29 DRAW 19.4% 4.85 AWAY 7.5% 12.62

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Congo DR

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Congo DR Equatorial Guinea

Shots 10.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 2.3 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Congo DR, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Congo DR Equatorial Guinea

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 1.5

Equatorial Guinea has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Congo DR Equatorial Guinea

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Congo DR = (0.0%)

Equatorial Guinea ↑ +2.52 (+25.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.