Guinea vs Kenya

01 Oct 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Guinea

Kenya

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.5% DRAW 29.3% AWAY 18.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.4% 1.68 DRAW 27.9% 3.40 AWAY 15.8% 6.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Kenya has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Guinea Kenya

Shots 7.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Kenya, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Guinea Kenya

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Kenya has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Guinea Kenya

The combined recent performance profile favours Kenya.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Guinea ↑ +0.34 (+25.4%)

Kenya ↓ -2.85 (-32.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.