Eritrea vs South Africa

30 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Eritrea

South Africa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 8.5% DRAW 15.8% AWAY 75.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 8.1% 12.00 DRAW 16.0% 6.10 AWAY 75.9% 1.28

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: South Africa

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Eritrea South Africa

Shots 2.3 · On target 1.8 Shots 14.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours South Africa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Eritrea South Africa

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Eritrea has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Eritrea South Africa

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Eritrea ↓ -4.50 (-27.3%)

South Africa ↑ +0.18 (+16.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.