Ghana vs Gambia

29 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Ghana

Gambia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.0% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 16.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.5% 1.52 DRAW 23.2% 4.10 AWAY 14.3% 6.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ghana

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ghana Gambia

Shots 7.3 · On target 1.0 Shots 3.3 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Ghana, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ghana Gambia

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Gambia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ghana Gambia

The combined recent performance profile favours Gambia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Ghana ↑ +0.18 (+13.4%)

Gambia ↓ -1.02 (-13.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.