Gabon vs Niger

29 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Gabon

Niger

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.6% DRAW 26.1% AWAY 15.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.3% 1.61 DRAW 25.8% 3.70 AWAY 14.9% 6.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gabon

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gabon Niger

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 5.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Gabon, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gabon Niger

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Niger has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gabon Niger

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Gabon ↓ -0.03 (-1.6%)

Niger ↑ +1.52 (+31.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.