Tunisia vs Botswana

28 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Tunisia

Botswana

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.5% DRAW 15.7% AWAY 6.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 78.0% 1.21 DRAW 15.7% 6.00 AWAY 6.3% 15.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Tunisia

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tunisia Botswana

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 4.0 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Tunisia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tunisia Botswana

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Botswana has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tunisia Botswana

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Tunisia ↓ -0.12 (-9.2%)

Botswana ↑ +6.50 (+72.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.