Madagascar vs Tanzania

29 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Madagascar

Tanzania

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.3% DRAW 32.4% AWAY 32.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.6% 2.42 DRAW 31.7% 3.02 AWAY 28.7% 3.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tanzania relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 32.3% win probability, compared with 28.7% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Tanzania

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Madagascar Tanzania

Shots 0.3 · On target 0.0 Shots 12.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Tanzania, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Madagascar Tanzania

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.0

Madagascar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Madagascar Tanzania

The combined recent performance profile favours Tanzania.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Madagascar ↓ -0.09 (-3.6%)

Tanzania ↑ +0.82 (+32.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.