Union San Felipe vs San Luis Quillota

30 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.7 pp

Union San Felipe

San Luis Quillota

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 23.2% DRAW 25.3% AWAY 51.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.0% 3.72 DRAW 26.3% 3.68 AWAY 47.8% 2.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for San Luis Quillota relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.5% win probability, compared with 47.8% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

San Luis Quillota has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Union San Felipe San Luis Quillota

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 13.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours San Luis Quillota, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Union San Felipe San Luis Quillota

Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 3.8

San Luis Quillota has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Union San Felipe San Luis Quillota

The combined recent performance profile favours San Luis Quillota.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Union San Felipe ↑ +0.62 (+20.0%)

San Luis Quillota ↓ -0.03 (-1.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.