Tzeirey Tira vs MS Jerusalem

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.9 pp

Tzeirey Tira

MS Jerusalem

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 15.9% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 64.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.9% 5.05 DRAW 21.2% 4.51 AWAY 59.8% 1.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates MS Jerusalem clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.7% win probability, compared with 59.8% implied by the market. The 4.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

MS Jerusalem has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tzeirey Tira MS Jerusalem

Shots 5.8 · On target 1.8 Shots 13.8 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours MS Jerusalem, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tzeirey Tira MS Jerusalem

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.0

MS Jerusalem has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tzeirey Tira MS Jerusalem

The combined recent performance profile favours MS Jerusalem.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Tzeirey Tira ↑ +1.30 (+34.7%)

MS Jerusalem ↓ -0.15 (-8.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.