Maccabi Ironi Ashdod vs Hapoel Holon Yaniv

30 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod

Hapoel Holon Yaniv

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.1% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 35.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% 2.35 DRAW 26.8% 3.58 AWAY 32.3% 2.97

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hapoel Holon Yaniv relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 35.4% win probability, compared with 32.3% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Hapoel Holon Yaniv has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Shots 8.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 14.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Hapoel Holon Yaniv, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Hapoel Holon Yaniv has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Hapoel Holon Yaniv

The combined recent performance profile favours Hapoel Holon Yaniv.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod ↓ -0.15 (-6.0%)

Hapoel Holon Yaniv ↑ +0.47 (+19.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.