Ironi Nesher vs Beitar Nahariya

30 Sep 2026 · 16:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Ironi Nesher

Beitar Nahariya

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.1% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 33.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% 2.46 DRAW 25.6% 3.71 AWAY 35.7% 2.66

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Ironi Nesher relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.1% win probability, compared with 38.7% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ironi Nesher

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ironi Nesher Beitar Nahariya

Shots 18.3 · On target 9.5 Shots 13.5 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Ironi Nesher, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ironi Nesher Beitar Nahariya

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ironi Nesher Beitar Nahariya

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Ironi Nesher ↑ +0.08 (+3.4%)

Beitar Nahariya ↑ +0.11 (+4.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.