Benfica (W) vs Bayern Munich (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Benfica (W)

Bayern Munich (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 10.3% DRAW 14.8% AWAY 74.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 8.8% 11.00 DRAW 14.7% 6.63 AWAY 76.5% 1.27

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Benfica (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Benfica (W) Bayern Munich (W)

Shots 14.8 · On target 6.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Benfica (W) Bayern Munich (W)

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Benfica (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Benfica (W) Bayern Munich (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Benfica (W) ↑ +1.50 (+15.8%)

Bayern Munich (W) ↑ +0.01 (+0.8%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.