San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors

20 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

San Lorenzo

Boca Juniors

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.8% DRAW 32.9% AWAY 47.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.5% 5.05 DRAW 31.7% 3.11 AWAY 48.8% 2.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Boca Juniors

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

San Lorenzo Boca Juniors

Shots 11.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

San Lorenzo Boca Juniors

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

San Lorenzo Boca Juniors

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

San Lorenzo ↑ +0.72 (+16.5%)

Boca Juniors ↓ -0.12 (-5.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.