Lanus vs Estudiantes LP

22 Sep 2026 · 02:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Lanus

Estudiantes LP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.4% DRAW 33.6% AWAY 26.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.8% 2.28 DRAW 32.6% 2.98 AWAY 24.6% 3.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Lanus

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lanus Estudiantes LP

Shots 12.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 10.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lanus Estudiantes LP

Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Estudiantes LP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lanus Estudiantes LP

The combined recent performance profile favours Estudiantes LP.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Lanus ↑ +0.03 (+1.1%)

Estudiantes LP ↑ +0.33 (+9.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.