Athletico Paranaense vs EC Bahia

21 Sep 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Athletico Paranaense

EC Bahia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.9% DRAW 28.6% AWAY 31.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.5% 2.34 DRAW 28.6% 3.40 AWAY 29.9% 3.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

EC Bahia has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Athletico Paranaense EC Bahia

Shots 13.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 15.5 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Athletico Paranaense EC Bahia

Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Athletico Paranaense EC Bahia

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Athletico Paranaense ↑ +0.06 (+2.8%)

EC Bahia ↓ -0.26 (-6.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.