Flamengo vs Bragantino

20 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Flamengo

Bragantino

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.0% DRAW 16.6% AWAY 9.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 72.2% 1.35 DRAW 17.7% 5.50 AWAY 10.1% 9.67

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Flamengo

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Flamengo Bragantino

Shots 16.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 15.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Flamengo Bragantino

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Flamengo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Flamengo Bragantino

The combined recent performance profile favours Flamengo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Flamengo ↓ -0.05 (-3.6%)

Bragantino ↑ +1.12 (+13.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.